Lesson Notes By Weeks and Term v4 - SHS 3
MAKING PREDICTIONS WITH DATA
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MAKING PREDICTIONS WITH DATA
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Subject: Additional Mathematics
Class: SHS 3
Term: 2nd Term
Week: 14
Grade code: 3.4.2.LI.2
Strand code: 4
Sub-strand code: 2
Content standard code: 3.4.2.CS.1
Indicator code: 3.4.2.LI.2
Theme: HANDLING DATA
Subtheme: MAKING PREDICTIONS WITH DATA
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This lesson introduces the concept of Conditional Probability, a fundamental tool for making predictions with data. In our daily lives in Ghana, we are constantly updating our beliefs based on new information. For example, the chance of a Black Stars match being exciting changes if we hear that Mohammed Kudus has just scored. The probability of rain increases if we see dark clouds gathering over the Aburi mountains. Conditional probability gives us a mathematical way to handle this kind of "updated" probability. By understanding this concept, we can make more informed decisions in fields ranging from business and medicine to sports and agriculture.
A. Introduction to Conditional Probability
(Think-Pair-Share Activity): Ask the class: What is the probability that a randomly chosen SHS student in Ghana offers General Science? (Students will give a rough estimate). Now, imagine we know that the chosen student attends Mfantsipim School. Does this new information change the probability that they offer General Science? Why?
This discussion introduces the core idea: the probability of an event can change when we are given more information or when we know that another event has already occurred.
Definition: Conditional Probability is the probability of an event (let's call it B) occurring, given that another event (let's call it A) has already occurred. We write this as P(B|A). We read it as "the probability of B, given A".